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2 Billion Convergence Devices by 2015

Posted on Tuesday, Jun 19th 2007

A recent Forrester report puts a number on the projections for the laptop replacement convergence device trend we have been discussing in our iPhone and the Future series.

2 Billion.

While it took 27 years to reach one billion PCs, Forrester says it will take only five years to reach the next billion, due to advancing technology, lower prices, and global demand on the part of a technology-aware population. According to Forrester, the emerging Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC) market will account for more than 775 million new PCs by 2015.

In 2008, we’re scheduled to reach the first Billion PCs. These PCs are NOT convergence devices. However, very likely, a large % of the new 775 Million will be.

Who will benefit? Everyone, from Intel, AMD, Nokia, Lenovo, HP, Dell, Acer, Toshiba, Palm, RIM, Motorola, Samsung, and ofcourse, Apple.

Fortune reporter Dave Kirkpatrick says: “Some of Forrester’s predictions for the coming surge in computing are stunning. China, for instance, will leap from about 55 million PCs today to 500 million by 2015. India will add 156 million new PCs. The Middle East and Africa will add 110 million. Iran, with 8 million PCs today, should reach a total of 40 million. Latin America will add 171 million, Eastern Europe 85 million.”

These, incidentally, are not Apple’s iPhone target markets. Apple is a luxury product business, and doesn’t bother itself with the lowly masses (a pity). Apple, however, will innovate on usability, and indirectly help the players who WILL go after the emerging market.

So who is the most likely winner in the massive emerging market segment? My bet is Samsung. What is yours?

[Samsung is a company that I don’t think you can invest in directly. But several International Mutual Funds have positions in the company.]

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